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Autor Téma: Pretence of knowledge - F A Hayek Nobel prize lecture  (Přečteno 6246 krát)
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« kdy: 25. Únor, 2010, 19:50:04 »

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1974/hayek-lecture.htm

Tenhle Hayekův článek, i když mluví o ekonomii potažmo o společenských vědách, podle mě dost dobře vystihuje situaci ve které se nachází i západní medicína. "Scientismus" - aplikování metod přírodních věd na nekonečně komplexní systémy, které se snaží zkoumat společenské vědy vede k zaslepenosti a ignorování faktorů, které se nedají změřit a zakomponovat do modelu.

Hayek je vědec, tak možná někomu jeho argumentace bude připadat cizí. Ale věda je  velmi užitečný způsob poznávání, jen člověk člověk nesmí ztratit pokoru a musí si uvědomovat limity, které tento způsob poznání má.
Článěk je vlastně shrnutím jeho knihy Osudová domýšlivost (Fatal conceit), která vědce k pokoře nabádá.

...

It seems to me that this failure of the economists to guide policy more successfully is
closely connected with their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures
of the brilliantly successful physical sciences

...

the aspects of the events to be accounted for about which we can get
quantitative data are necessarily limited and may not include the important ones.

...

in the study of such complex phenomena as the market, which depend
on the actions of many individuals, all the circumstances which will determine the
outcome of a process, for reasons which I shall explain later, will hardly ever be fully
known or measurable.

...

And while in the physical sciences the investigator will be able to
measure what, on the basis of a prima facie theory, he thinks important, in the social
sciences often that is treated as important which happens to be accessible to
measurement.

...

On this standard there may thus well exist better "scientific" evidence for a false theory, which will be accepted because it is more "scientific", than for a valid explanation, which is rejected because there is no sufficient quantitative evidence for it.

...

social sciences, like much of biology but unlike most fields of the physical sciences, have to deal with structures of essential complexity, i.e. with structures whose characteristic properties can be exhibited only by models made up of relatively large numbers of variables.

...

Organized complexity here means that the character of the structures showing it depends not only on the properties of the individual elements of which they are composed, and the relative frequency with which they occur, but also on the manner in which the individual elements are connected with each other. In the explanation of the working of such structures we can for this reason not replace the information about the individual elements by statistical information, but require full information about each element if from our theory we are to derive specific predictions about individual events. Without such specific information about the individual elements we shall be confined to what on another occasion I have called mere pattern predictions - predictions of some of the general attributes of the structures that will form themselves, but not containing
specific statements about the individual elements of which the structures will be made
up.

...

There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes
can be important has done positive harm in the economic field: but the present inflation
and employment problems are a very serious one. Its effect has been that what is
probably the true cause of extensive unemployment has been disregarded by the
scientistically minded majority of economists, because its operation could not be
confirmed by directly observable relations between measurable magnitudes, and that an
almost exclusive concentration on quantitatively measurable surface phenomena has
produced a policy which has made matters worse.

...

In fact, in the case discussed, the very measures which the dominant "macro-economic"
theory has recommended as a remedy for unemployment, namely the increase of
aggregate demand, have become a cause of a very extensive misallocation of resources
which is likely to make later large-scale unemployment inevitable.

...

There is much reason to be apprehensive about the long run dangers created in a much wider field by the uncritical acceptance of assertions which have the appearance of being
scientific as there is with regard to the problems I have just discussed. What I mainly
wanted to bring out by the topical illustration is that certainly in my field, but I believe
also generally in the sciences of man, what looks superficially like the most scientific
procedure is often the most unscientific, and, beyond this, that in these fields there are
definite limits to what we can expect science to achieve.

...

The conflict between what in its present mood the public expects science to achieve in
satisfaction of popular hopes and what is really in its power is a serious matter because,
even if the true scientists should all recognize the limitations of what they can do in the
field of human affairs, so long as the public expects more there will always be some who will pretend, and perhaps honestly believe, that they can do more to meet popular
demands than is really in their power. It is often difficult enough for the expert, and
certainly in many instances impossible for the layman, to distinguish between
legitimate and illegitimate claims advanced in the name of science.

...

The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought
indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him
against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society - a striving
which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the
destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the
free efforts of millions of individuals.





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